How OpenAI Failed
New York University professor and AI expert Gary Marcus has raised some startling questions regarding the future of OpenAI. He tweeted yesterday, “…the foundations of the entire enterprise may be built on ethically shaky ground.” Strangely enough, credibility issues led to the board removing Sam Altman as CEO in November 2023 and then quickly reinstating him.
Silicon Valley investor Jason Calacanis explains that founders must innovate on their products but maintain a standard corporate structure. However, OpenAI began as a nonprofit. After the success of ChatGPT, the company evolved into a capped profit entity. The board’s job is not to protect investors but to ensure that the products being released are trustworthy.
Drama aside, ChatGPT has given us the first mainstream use case for AI. It took seven years to develop, resulting in over $1.6 billion in revenue. Their masterful use of public relations includes the US Senate and multiple stories from the world’s most-read publications. However, the scope of their success may be their downfall.
Transparency
OpenAI’s impressive PR strategy led to a Senate hearing that they requested. Sam Altman’s testimony reads like a product brochure. Including a statement to convince the world of their technological supremacy. It reads, “…it is vital that AI companies–especially those working on the most powerful models–adhere to an appropriate set of safety requirements.”
The problem, however, stems from their need for more transparency. On December 27, 2023, The New York Times filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft, arguing that the companies are “using The Times’s content without payment to create products that substitute for The Times and steal audiences away from it.”
Since OpenAI’s generative technology does not provide references, the Times discovered the alleged infringement when “Bing, a Microsoft search feature powered by ChatGPT, reproduced almost verbatim results…” Gary Marcus compares this copyright infringement to Napster.
Is OpenAI the New Napster
In 1999, Shawn Fanning and Sean Parker started an online file-sharing service called Napster. Users of the service could, among other things, upload audio files to share with other participants freely. By 2000, the service skyrocketed. In 2001, it was shut down by record company lawsuits for copyright infringement, even though the service filtered out over 99.4% of copyrighted music.
Marcus sees the New York Times lawsuit as the beginning of the end. However, OpenAI has something that Napster never did: corporate backing. Microsoft has invested over $13 billion into OpenAI and is using the technology as the basis of its next generation of products. As a result, OpenAI has deep pockets to fight litigation. They could reinvent themselves even if they lose the coming tsunami of copyright claims.
Lessons Learned
Coming after OpenAI, Estimand has the benefit of learning from their mistakes. We first addressed their lack of context for AI models by basing our technology on causal detection — a graph of cause-and-effect relationships that represent the current state of the world. Next, we ensure that permission is given for each dataset used in training. Last, we provide references to provide complete transparency.
Estimand began as a paper on causal AI that evolved into the first company to instantly reveal the factors behind global financial risk. You can learn more about Estimand by visiting our website: https://estimand.ai.
References
- Altman, S. (2023) Written Testimony of Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2023-05-16%20-%20Bio%20&%20Testimony%20-%20Altman.pdf
- Grynbaum, M. & Mac, R. (2023) The Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft Over A.I. Use of Copyrighted Work. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/business/media/new-york-times-open-ai-microsoft-lawsuit.html
- Krietzberg, I. (2024) Despite drama, ChatGPT maker OpenAI is growing revenue at a rapid pace. Gwinnett Daily Post. https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/arena/thestreet/despite-drama-chatgpt-maker-openai-is-growing-revenue-at-a-rapid-pace/article_930d5fff-c21f-59df-add2-88e2010c8337.html
- Sydell, L (2009) Napster: The File-Sharing Service That Started It All?. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2009/12/21/121690908/napster-the-file-sharing-service-that-started-it-all
